UKIP and my mistake

I made a mistake the other day. I woke up and heard that a poll had given UKIP greater than 20% support. I started to think about the consequence of UKIP gaining a significant number of MPs. My conclusion - my mistake - was that we'd have an referendum on leaving the EU - which a "better together" campaign would probably win, and then everything would go back to normal, and support for UKIP would subside.

Now, I'd just woken up. And within ten seconds of thinking this I realised my error. UKIP are no longer a single issue party defined by the EU. If they have a single issue - it's the same issue the SNP have: that MPs and the "Westminster parties" form a permanent elite who have forgotten ordinary people. UKIP and the SNP have wildly different solutions*, but they are making the same pitch - to be the outsiders who can take back control for the quiet bat people. An EU referendum is certainly part of the solution UKIP offer, but by no means is it any longer the centre-piece of their existence. It has ceased to be their raison d'être. UKIP won't cease to exist, and people won't cease to support them after (and because) an EU referendum has taken place. There core message of taking back power for the people will resonate long after their message on the EU has gone.

I got it wrong when I'd just woken up: I was groggy, and realised my mistake in ten seconds. So what is the Prime Minister's excuse? The Tory party seem to be approaching the UKIP threat by running to the right on Europe and immigration, copying UKIP's stance on the EU, and hoping Tory-to-UKIP switchers will switch back, on the grounds that the Tories are also offering a referendum on Britain's EU membership. David Cameron and the Tories seem to have missed the reason their former voters have gone in the first place: disillusionment with Westminster politics. The increase in support for UKIP has very little to do with the EU. And if I can see that, why can't Tory strategists? Ultimately, the Tory line of being the only party able to provide an EU referendum, as well as being wrong**, misses the reason so many people are considering voting for UKIP in the first place.

--
* as a liberal, my take on the solution is PR, so everyone in society has a stake in elections, and increased devolution, so everyone has a greater say in how their local area is run.
** the coalition have legislated for one already, when the balance of powers between the UK and the EU next change)